On Politics With Lisa Lerer: A Midterms Rorschach Test

“I’m not on the ticket, but I am on the ticket, because this is also a referendum about me,” he told supporters at a rally this month in Southaven, Miss. “I want you to vote. Pretend I’m on the ballot.”

Republicans say Mr. Trump excites their supporters like no other politician.

“To me, he is like the Energizer Bunny,” said Stephen Fiske, 53, a Republican from North Miami. “I just feel the more he’s out helping the candidates, the better off the party is.”

But that’s a strategy not without risk. While Mr. Trump fires up his base, he also infuriates Democrats.

In Jacksonville, Sandy Pompey, 60, said Mr. Trump plays into her vote “1,000 percent.”

“I just find him despicable. Sorry, I don’t know how else to describe it,” she said, as she waited for Joe Biden, the former vice president, to appear at a Democratic campaign rally.

National Democratic officials have told me that after Mr. Trump headlines a rally, their local candidates see a bump in volunteer registrations and donations.

Of course, no one knows exactly how the midterms will turn out for Republicans.

If the G.O.P. successfully expands their margin in the Senate and beats back Democratic control of the House, Mr. Trump will certainly take credit.

And if they don’t? Well, the president has made clear that he’ll be a winner then, too.

He told the A.P. earlier this month that he’d accept none of the blame if his party has losses in November.

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